When the Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery merger closes
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Chance by 18 Nov 2026
9.2%
As of 15 Sept 2026, 23:27 UTC
Probability by date
Full accessRationale
Full accessMy median prediction for the closing of the Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery merger is May 27, 2027, driven by the timeline of a March 2027 antitrust bench trial and subsequent post-trial briefing that allows a merits ruling and closing five days later, just ahead of the June 4 outside date.
Forecast record
Question context
Resolution criteria
The merger is considered closed when Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery publicly announce in an SEC Form 8-K filing or an official company press release that the transaction has closed. The closing must be the completion of the merger transaction, not merely an announcement, signing, financing update, regulatory approval, or agreement to extend deadlines.
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