Which country is the next to land humans on the Moon

I predict a 59% likelihood that the United States will be the next nation to land humans on the Moon, as its flight-tested Orion capsule and dual commercial landers give it a narrow edge over China's simpler but unflown architecture in a tightly contested race targeted around 2029–2031.

This question resolves to the first country to successfully soft-land a crewed spacecraft on the Moon and have astronauts physically exit the spacecraft on the lunar surface after the Apollo era. The mission must carry humans from that country’s national space program or an officially recognized government-led program. If multiple countries achieve this on the same mission, use the country whose program is officially credited as the mission operator. Uncrewed landings do not count. European countries only include countries which are entirely within the geographic european continent.(e.g. this excludes Russia and Turkey)