The # of seats the Republican Party wins in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections

My most likely prediction for the number of seats won by the Republican Party in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections is 198.82 seats because severe political headwinds from President Trump's low approval ratings, persistent inflation, and the ongoing Iran conflict will drive decisive seat losses, though favorable mid-decade redistricting cushions against a deeper collapse.

President Donald Trump is facing political headwinds ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections, driven in part by the ongoing US-Iran conflict and its economic impacts. With his approval rating dropping to around 34% in recent polling, political analysts have highlighted the dimming chances of the Republican Party retaining control of Congress. The U.S. House of Representatives consists of 435 voting seats, and midterm elections historically result in seat losses for the incumbent president's party. The outcome will significantly shape the legislative environment for the remainder of Trump's second term and impact U.S. domestic and foreign policy.

This question resolves as the total number of voting seats won by candidates officially affiliated with the Republican Party in the U.S. House of Representatives during the November 2026 general elections. Resolution will be based on the official election results as compiled by the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives or, if those are not yet available by the scheduled resolution date, by the final race calls made by the Associated Press (AP). Seats won by independents who may caucus with Republicans are not included.