Who is the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Gadi Eizenkot
48.5%
As of 20 Oct 2026, 13:42 UTC
Outcome probabilities
Rationale
Full accessI give a 49% probability that Gadi Eizenkot becomes the next sworn-in prime minister, mainly because Channel 12's 19 October poll gave him a 45%–33% lead over Benjamin Netanyahu.
Forecast breakdown
Full accessForecast record
ScenariosFull access3
Who is the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election
How many seats will Ra’am and the Joint List win combined in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? >= 12
85% chance of this condition
Benjamin Netanyahu: Default 27%; ≥12 26%; <12 32%
Benny Gantz: Default <1%; ≥12 <1%; <12 <1%
Naftali Bennett: Default 11%; ≥12 11%; <12 10%
Yair Lapid: Default <1%; ≥12 <1%; <12 <1%
Avigdor Lieberman: Default 2%; ≥12 2%; <12 2%
Yair Golan: Default <1%; ≥12 <1%; <12 <1%
Itamar Ben-Gvir: Default <1%; ≥12 <1%; <12 <1%
Yossi Cohen: Default <1%; ≥12 <1%; <12 <1%
Gadi Eizenkot: Default 49%; ≥12 49%; <12 43%
Gideon Sa’ar: Default <1%; ≥12 <1%; <12 <1%
Nir Barkat: Default 1%; ≥12 1%; <12 1%
Other: Default 10%; ≥12 10%; <12 12%
How many seats will Ra’am and the Joint List win combined in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? >= 14
47% chance of this condition
Benjamin Netanyahu: Default 27%; ≥14 23%; <14 30%
Benny Gantz: Default <1%; ≥14 <1%; <14 <1%
Naftali Bennett: Default 11%; ≥14 12%; <14 10%
Yair Lapid: Default <1%; ≥14 <1%; <14 <1%
Avigdor Lieberman: Default 2%; ≥14 2%; <14 2%
Yair Golan: Default <1%; ≥14 <1%; <14 <1%
Itamar Ben-Gvir: Default <1%; ≥14 <1%; <14 <1%
Yossi Cohen: Default <1%; ≥14 <1%; <14 <1%
Gadi Eizenkot: Default 49%; ≥14 51%; <14 47%
Gideon Sa’ar: Default <1%; ≥14 <1%; <14 <1%
Nir Barkat: Default 1%; ≥14 1%; <14 1%
Other: Default 10%; ≥14 11%; <14 10%
How many seats will Ra’am and the Joint List win combined in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? >= 16
11% chance of this condition
Benjamin Netanyahu: Default 27%; ≥16 18%; <16 28%
Benny Gantz: Default <1%; ≥16 <1%; <16 <1%
Naftali Bennett: Default 11%; ≥16 11%; <16 11%
Yair Lapid: Default <1%; ≥16 <1%; <16 <1%
Avigdor Lieberman: Default 2%; ≥16 1%; <16 2%
Yair Golan: Default <1%; ≥16 <1%; <16 <1%
Itamar Ben-Gvir: Default <1%; ≥16 <1%; <16 <1%
Yossi Cohen: Default <1%; ≥16 <1%; <16 <1%
Gadi Eizenkot: Default 49%; ≥16 52%; <16 48%
Gideon Sa’ar: Default <1%; ≥16 <1%; <16 <1%
Nir Barkat: Default 1%; ≥16 1%; <16 1%
Other: Default 10%; ≥16 15%; <16 10%
Who is the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election
Forecast conditional on: How many seats will Ra’am and the Joint List win combined in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? >= 12
Forecast context
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Clarifications
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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