INPE's PRODES annual Brazilian Amazon deforestation rate for the 2029 measurement year (August 2028–July 2029), in square kilometres
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Most likely value
3.09K km²
As of 9 Sept 2026, 15:18 UTC
Forecast distribution
Rationale
Full accessMy most likely prediction for INPE's PRODES annual Brazilian Amazon deforestation rate for the 2029 measurement year is 3,086.35 km² because sustained near-real-time declines from vigorous PPCDAm command-and-control enforcement will drive substantial reductions from baseline levels, even as statutory legal clearing minimums and upside risks from the Soy Moratorium's erosion limit further decreases.
Forecast record
ScenariosFull access3
INPE's PRODES annual Brazilian Amazon deforestation rate for the 2029 measurement year (August 2028–July 2029), in square kilometres
The winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
53% chance of this condition
Default: mean 5,634.82
50% range: 2,000.00 to 5,110.14. 80% range: 1,600.00 to 8,623.08.
If yes: mean 3,775.26
50% range: 2,289.61 to 3,800.00. 80% range: 1,700.00 to 4,844.31.
If no: mean 7,748.78
50% range: 4,500.00 to 8,318.66. 80% range: 3,500.00 to 11,197.13.
The winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election · Flávio Bolsonaro
43% chance of this condition
Default: mean 5,634.82
50% range: 2,000.00 to 5,110.14. 80% range: 1,600.00 to 8,623.08.
If yes: mean 8,012.01
50% range: 4,800.00 to 8,538.52. 80% range: 3,800.00 to 11,377.33.
If no: mean 3,816.57
50% range: 2,300.00 to 3,872.79. 80% range: 1,700.00 to 4,957.17.
The winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election · Augusto Cury
1% chance of this condition
Default: mean 5,634.82
50% range: 2,000.00 to 5,110.14. 80% range: 1,600.00 to 8,623.08.
If yes: mean 5,753.09
50% range: 3,300.00 to 5,934.30. 80% range: 2,405.37 to 7,800.00.
If no: mean 5,633.50
50% range: 2,000.00 to 5,106.60. 80% range: 1,600.00 to 8,638.11.
INPE's PRODES annual Brazilian Amazon deforestation rate for the 2029 measurement year (August 2028–July 2029), in square kilometres
INPE's PRODES annual Brazilian Amazon deforestation rate for the 2029 measurement year (August 2028–July 2029), in square kilometres
Forecast context
Clarifications
Use INPE's PRODES estimate for deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon for the measurement year August 2028 through July 2029, reported in square kilometres. Resolve using the annual PRODES figure that corresponds to that measurement year. If INPE publishes more than one related number, use the main annual deforestation area for the Brazilian Amazon under PRODES, not interim satellite alerts or figures for other biomes.
Want the full analysis?
The complete analysis, including full reasoning, news and data sources, and live forecast updates, is available in the Mantic app.