Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be the Prime Minister of Israel?

I predict a 4% probability that Benjamin Netanyahu will leave office by November 3, 2026, as the October 27 election date leaves insufficient time for the historically lengthy process of swearing in a successor before the deadline.

Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition of right-wing and religious parties has faced significant internal strain over the Gaza war, a subsequent ceasefire, and military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox students. The government faces a critical test in passing the 2026 budget by the end of March 2026; failure to do so would trigger new elections. According to a Reuters report from November 2025, polls have consistently shown that Netanyahu would lose a snap election. His hold on power could be challenged either by the dissolution of the government or by internal political manoeuvring.

This resolves as "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to hold the office of Prime Minister of Israel for any reason, including resignation, a successful no-confidence vote, the formation of a new government following an election, or death.

A temporary incapacitation where an acting prime minister is appointed is not sufficient for this question to resolve. The departure must be permanent. The question resolves at the moment a successor is officially sworn in, or at the moment his departure is formally accepted or announced if no immediate successor is in place.