Stamped snapshot

How many protest-related interpellations will French authorities report nationwide for 24 October 2026?

This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.

Most likely value

1.08K interpellations

As of 21 Oct 2026, 10:47 UTC

Forecast distribution

50%80%

Rationale

Full access

My most likely value for nationwide protest-related interpellations on 24 October 2026 is about 1,080, lowered from the prior week's roughly 2,400 because Economica reported a sharp drop in mobilisation calls.

Forecast breakdown

Full access

Forecast record

Forecast context

Nationwide demonstrations on 17 October 2026 were followed by violent incidents and mass arrests. A further mobilisation has been called for 24 October. Sources: https://www.afp.com/en/macron-denounces-unbridled-violence-france-hit-new-clashes and https://www.aa.com.tr/fr/france/france-gilets-jaunes-un-appel-%C3%A0-un-acte-ii-de-mobilisation-samedi-24-octobre/4093336 .

Clarifications

Resolve to the number of interpellations associated with the 24 October 2026 protest mobilisation and related unrest across the French Republic. Count arrests during 24 October and the following night through 06:00 on 25 October, Europe/Paris time. Use the Interior Ministry's latest comprehensive national tally published before 1 November 2026, including a tally attributed to the ministry in AFP or Reuters reporting. A national official tally explicitly described as covering the 24 October mobilisation and its overnight aftermath is acceptable even if its precise hour boundaries are not stated. Do not substitute police custody (gardes a vue), charges or convictions. Exclude unrelated ordinary policing and arrests for earlier unrest. Do not add overlapping or successive cumulative tallies. If no national tally is available by the cutoff, use the sum of the latest non-overlapping prefectural or police official tallies for this mobilisation published by that cutoff; a later authoritative national tally covering the event takes precedence if the earlier reporting was incomplete. If reporting remains incomplete, await a complete official tally rather than treating unreported arrests as zero. A confirmed cancellation with no associated demonstrations, unrest or arrests resolves to zero.

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How many protest-related interpellations will French authorities report nationwide for 24 October 2026? | Mantic