Stamped snapshot18 Aug 2026, 18:26

This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.

When an EU/Schengen state next notifies the European Commission of a new reintroduction of internal border controls explicitly targeting arrivals from another named EU/Schengen member state

Clarifications: Resolve using the date of the first new notification entered in the European Commission's NB register that meets all of the following: (1) it is a new notification of reintroduced internal border controls, not a prolongation or renewal of controls already in force; (2) the notification explicitly identifies a specific EU/Schengen member state as the source of the threat, pressure, or risk motivating the controls; and (3) the measure applies to arrivals from that named member state. Do not count general internal border-control notifications justified by broad migration, security, or public-order concerns without naming a specific fellow member state. Do not count Spain's August 2026 counter-measures against Italy, or any renewal/prolongation of those measures. The answer is the notification date in the NB register, not the date controls begin.
Published Aug 18, 2026 10 AM · Reliable information cutoff date: Aug 18, 2026 8 AM

Cumulative probability by date

0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2026Jan 2027Apr 2027Jul 2027Oct 2027Jan 2028Apr 2028Jul 2028

My 25th percentile prediction for the next notification of internal border controls targeting a named member state is 17th November 2026, driven by the normalization of targeted filings following Italy’s 2026 precedent and expected diplomatic escalation after broad German and Austrian controls expire in mid-September.

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