Stamped snapshot20 Aug 2026, 10:22

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US real GDP growth over the four quarters ending Q4 2027 (percent)

Clarifications: This question resolves to the value of the percentage change in US real gross domestic product between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027 (fourth quarter over fourth quarter, not annualized), computed from the chained-dollar real GDP levels in NIPA Table 1.1.6 as published in the Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate for Q4 2027. The value in the first release will be considered as the resolution value; subsequent revisions will not be considered.

Published Aug 17, 2026 1 PM · Reliable information cutoff date: Aug 17, 2026 11 AM

2.24

-5

Most likely: 2.24

50% range

80% range

Summary One page

My most likely prediction for US real GDP growth in the four quarters ending Q4 2027 is 2.24%, as massive capital expenditure on artificial intelligence infrastructure and Federal Reserve rate cuts are partially offset by a significant fiscal drag from scheduled Medicaid cuts.

News sources

Macroeconomic data

External forecasts

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Scenarios

Base2.071 scenario modelled

If YES If NO

Combined capital expenditures of Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft in calendar Q4 2027 (USD billions) >= 208 96%

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