US real GDP growth over the four quarters ending Q4 2027 (percent)
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Most likely value
2.24%
As of 17 Aug 2026, 13:18 UTC
Forecast distribution
Rationale
Full accessMy most likely prediction for US real GDP growth in the four quarters ending Q4 2027 is 2.24%, as massive capital expenditure on artificial intelligence infrastructure and Federal Reserve rate cuts are partially offset by a significant fiscal drag from scheduled Medicaid cuts.
Forecast record
ScenariosFull access1
US real GDP growth over the four quarters ending Q4 2027 (percent)
Combined capital expenditures of Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft in calendar Q4 2027 (USD billions) >= 208
96% chance of this condition
Default: mean 1.89
50% range: 1.45 to 3.03. 80% range: 0.34 to 3.81.
If yes: mean 1.92
50% range: 1.47 to 3.04. 80% range: 0.40 to 3.85.
If no: mean 1.22
50% range: 0.95 to 2.49. 80% range: -0.32 to 2.99.
US real GDP growth over the four quarters ending Q4 2027 (percent)
US real GDP growth over the four quarters ending Q4 2027 (percent)
Forecast context
Clarifications
This question resolves to the value of the percentage change in US real gross domestic product between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027 (fourth quarter over fourth quarter, not annualized), computed from the chained-dollar real GDP levels in NIPA Table 1.1.6 as published in the Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate for Q4 2027. The value in the first release will be considered as the resolution value; subsequent revisions will not be considered.
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