Stamped snapshot

Neat biodiesel (FAME) Indonesia distributes domestically in calendar 2027, in million kilolitres

This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.

Most likely value

18.3 million kilolitres

As of 9 Nov 2026, 13:08 UTC

Forecast distribution

50%80%

Rationale

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My most likely value for Indonesia's 2027 domestic neat FAME biodiesel distribution is 18.3 million kilolitres, because annualising the 3.42 million kilolitres distributed under the 50% mandate between July and September 2026 anchors demand.

Forecast breakdown

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Forecast record

Forecast context

The EBTKE annual performance report distinguishes actual domestic biodiesel distribution from allocations. Its 2025 report records approximately 14.9 million kilolitres actually distributed domestically, versus an allocation of 15.6 million kilolitres. The metric is the neat biodiesel component, rather than the total volume of blended diesel. Source: https://www.esdm.go.id/assets/media/content/content-laporan-kinerja-ditjen-ebtke-tahun-2025.pdf

Clarifications

Resolves to actual full-calendar-2027 domestic distribution of neat fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) biodiesel in Indonesia, expressed in million kilolitres. Use the series Realisasi Penyaluran Biodiesel, also described as Pemanfaatan biodiesel untuk domestik, in the Directorate General of New, Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation (EBTKE) 2027 annual performance report (Laporan Kinerja), taking its latest revision published on or before 31 December 2028. If unavailable, use the latest formal ESDM/EBTKE statistical publication available by that date explicitly reporting actual full-year 2027 domestic FAME distribution. If no such result is published by then, use the first subsequent formal ESDM/EBTKE publication reporting that metric. Exclude allocation and policy targets, production, exports, crude-palm-oil equivalents and the fossil-diesel portion of blended fuels. HVO/renewable diesel, ethanol and aviation fuels do not count. Convert kilolitres to million kilolitres by dividing by 1,000,000.

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