When Israel next launches a new brigade-scale ground offensive into Hamas-held areas of Gaza

My median prediction for Israel’s next qualifying brigade-scale ground offensive into Hamas-held Gaza is 28th November 2028 because Reuters and AP reported a year without full-scale operations, indicating prolonged delay.

The October 2025 ceasefire halted major ground operations but did not end Israeli strikes or resolve Gaza's divided control. A new sustained ground offensive would be a different event from isolated raids or continued occupation of existing positions. Source: https://apnews.com/article/f6c105e8f72d8b478d78312142d888ed .

Resolves to the first date after 20 October 2026 on which a new Israeli ground offensive begins and meets all of the following: it is a coordinated campaign against Hamas-held areas in the Gaza Strip; it deploys at least three IDF combat battalions, or at least 1,000 combat troops, into those areas; and those offensive ground operations continue for at least seven consecutive calendar days. The deployment threshold must be met on each of those seven days; troops merely stationed elsewhere in Gaza do not count.

For this forecast, Hamas-held areas are areas outside continuous Israeli ground control immediately before the campaign, where Hamas exercises armed or policing authority. This is evaluated immediately before each campaign, rather than against a moving map after the offensive begins. Evidence must distinguish an actual offensive into such areas from troop rotations or routine reinforcement of existing Israeli positions. The campaign's first day counts as its start, provided that the seven-day requirement is subsequently met. A campaign that began on or before 20 October 2026 does not qualify merely because it continues afterward.

Airstrikes alone, isolated raids lasting fewer than seven days, operations below the deployment threshold, training, and deployments limited to areas already under continuous Israeli ground control do not qualify. Explicit credible reporting that at least three combat battalions, or at least 1,000 combat troops, conducted the qualifying campaign is sufficient; the name of the operation is not material.

Use IDF operational announcements and UN reporting, corroborated by Reuters, AP, AFP, or BBC. If official and independent accounts conflict, consistent reporting from at least two independent major news organizations takes precedence over uncorroborated claims.