Which parties control the U.S. House and Senate after the 2026 midterm elections

I give a 65% probability to Democratic control of both chambers, primarily because Polymarket priced Democratic Senate control at about 67% alongside strong national polling favoring a Democratic House.

The US-Iran war began on February 28 and disrupted Gulf energy flows. By September 28, a Wall Street Journal report put front-month Brent at $105.95 per barrel; reporting also put US gasoline near $4.50 per gallon and diesel above $6.50 by September 25, amid rising political pressure on President Trump. US voters are scheduled to cast ballots in the midterm election on October 27.

Determine control from the 2026 election results, using Associated Press race calls and, for any race it leaves unresolved, the final state-certified returns. Count all House seats and all Senate seats, including seats not contested in 2026. A party controls the House if it holds a majority of seats. A party controls the Senate if it holds the majority caucus; in an evenly divided Senate, treat the Vice President's party as controlling because it can break tie votes. Resolve to the matching House-and-Senate combination; use “Other or indeterminate control” if a chamber is controlled by another party or coalition, or no party controls it.