The percentage of valid votes Flávio Bolsonaro receives in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election

My most likely prediction for Flávio Bolsonaro's share of valid votes is 44.7% because late-campaign momentum and third-party voter consolidation warrant a modest upward adjustment to the 43.7% pre-election polling average.

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro announced his candidacy for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election in December 2025, taking the mantle of the right-wing Liberal Party (PL) after his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, was barred from running. As of May 2026, Flávio's campaign faced significant political turbulence following the leak of messages between him and Daniel Vorcaro, the arrested former owner of Banco Master, regarding the financing of a film about Jair Bolsonaro. Despite the scandal, Flávio remains highly competitive in the polls against incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. A Meio/Ideia poll in early May 2026 showed Flávio capturing 36% of the first-round vote, while a mid-May AtlasIntel poll placed him at 34.3%. Flávio maintains strong support among evangelical voters and higher-income demographics as he seeks to secure a spot in a likely second-round runoff.

This question will resolve based on the official percentage of valid votes (votos válidos) received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, as reported by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The value should be expressed as a percentage (e.g., 38.2 for 38.2% of valid votes).