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Stamped snapshot10 Sep 2026, 09:20

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The effective tariff rate on United States imports from Brazil in September 2027

Clarifications: This question resolves to total calculated duties on United States general imports from Brazil for the reference month of September 2027, divided by the customs value of those imports, expressed as a percentage to one decimal place, using the figures published by the United States Census Bureau in its monthly country-level import statistics for that reference month, as available via USITC DataWeb. If these are no longer available, other credible sources may be used.
Published Sep 10, 2026 8 AM · Reliable information cutoff date: Sep 10, 2026 6 AM
13.76
0
10
20
30
Most likely: 13.76
50% range
80% range
SummaryOne page

My most likely prediction for the effective tariff rate on United States imports from Brazil in September 2027 is 13.76% because the elevated tariff architecture established in July 2026—including Section 301 and metals duties—will remain largely durable while substantial product exemptions (52.7%) and import substitution keep realized collections well below statutory headline levels.

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Scenarios
Base mean12.103 scenarios modelled
If YES If NO

  1. The winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election · Augusto Cury 1%

    12.148.29

  2. The winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 53%

    10.1413.82

  3. The winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election · Flávio Bolsonaro 43%

    13.5810.16

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The effective tariff rate on United States imports from Brazil in September 2027 | Mantic