The effective tariff rate on United States imports from Brazil in September 2027
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Most likely value
13.8%
As of 10 Sept 2026, 08:54 UTC
Forecast distribution
Rationale
Full accessMy most likely prediction for the effective tariff rate on United States imports from Brazil in September 2027 is 13.76% because the elevated tariff architecture established in July 2026—including Section 301 and metals duties—will remain largely durable while substantial product exemptions (52.7%) and import substitution keep realized collections well below statutory headline levels.
Forecast record
ScenariosFull access3
The effective tariff rate on United States imports from Brazil in September 2027
The winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
53% chance of this condition
Default: mean 12.10
50% range: 10.50 to 15.70. 80% range: 6.64 to 19.25.
If yes: mean 13.82
50% range: 11.64 to 15.63. 80% range: 10.00 to 18.33.
If no: mean 10.14
50% range: 8.89 to 15.50. 80% range: 3.25 to 15.91.
The winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election · Flávio Bolsonaro
43% chance of this condition
Default: mean 12.10
50% range: 10.50 to 15.70. 80% range: 6.64 to 19.25.
If yes: mean 10.16
50% range: 8.38 to 15.41. 80% range: 2.88 to 16.01.
If no: mean 13.58
50% range: 11.38 to 15.51. 80% range: 9.76 to 18.00.
The winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election · Augusto Cury
1% chance of this condition
Default: mean 12.10
50% range: 10.50 to 15.70. 80% range: 6.64 to 19.25.
If yes: mean 8.29
50% range: 3.00 to 8.22. 80% range: 2.75 to 12.38.
If no: mean 12.14
50% range: 10.50 to 15.66. 80% range: 6.80 to 19.25.
The effective tariff rate on United States imports from Brazil in September 2027
The effective tariff rate on United States imports from Brazil in September 2027
Forecast context
Clarifications
This question resolves to total calculated duties on United States general imports from Brazil for the reference month of September 2027, divided by the customs value of those imports, expressed as a percentage to one decimal place, using the figures published by the United States Census Bureau in its monthly country-level import statistics for that reference month, as available via USITC DataWeb. If these are no longer available, other credible sources may be used.
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