When the IAEA conducts an on-site inspection at any of Iran's Natanz, Fordow, or Isfahan nuclear sites
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Chance by 2 Sept 2027
22.2%
As of 2 Sept 2026, 09:26 UTC
Probability by date
Full accessRationale
Full accessMy 25th percentile prediction for an IAEA on-site inspection at Natanz, Fordow, or Isfahan is 31st October 2027 because the collapse of the Islamabad Memorandum, combined with Iran's "wartime conditions" and domestic legislative hurdles, has created a prolonged diplomatic and security impasse.
Forecast record
ScenariosFull access4
When the IAEA conducts an on-site inspection at any of Iran's Natanz, Fordow, or Isfahan nuclear sites
When will the Iran–United States war first complete 30 consecutive days without a qualifying direct kinetic attack · On or after 1 Jan 2027
82% chance of this condition
Default: 34% chance within the horizon (by 28 Aug 2028). Timing and ranges below apply if it happens within the horizon.
Default: timing median 8 May 2027
50% range: 2 Dec 2026 to 12 Nov 2027. 80% range: 18 Oct 2026 to 18 Apr 2028.
If yes: 27% chance within the horizon (by 28 Aug 2028). Timing and ranges below apply if it happens within the horizon.
If yes: timing median 4 Sep 2027
50% range: 14 Apr 2027 to 22 Jan 2028. 80% range: 30 Nov 2026 to 30 May 2028.
If no: 67% chance within the horizon (by 28 Aug 2028). Timing and ranges below apply if it happens within the horizon.
If no: timing median 30 Nov 2026
50% range: 3 Nov 2026 to 31 Dec 2026. 80% range: 3 Oct 2026 to 26 May 2027.
When will the Iran–United States war first complete 30 consecutive days without a qualifying direct kinetic attack · On or after 1 Nov 2026
95% chance of this condition
Default: 34% chance within the horizon (by 28 Aug 2028). Timing and ranges below apply if it happens within the horizon.
Default: timing median 8 May 2027
50% range: 2 Dec 2026 to 12 Nov 2027. 80% range: 18 Oct 2026 to 18 Apr 2028.
If yes: 33% chance within the horizon (by 28 Aug 2028). Timing and ranges below apply if it happens within the horizon.
If yes: timing median 7 Jun 2027
50% range: 13 Dec 2026 to 26 Nov 2027. 80% range: 4 Nov 2026 to 27 Apr 2028.
If no: 59% chance within the horizon (by 28 Aug 2028). Timing and ranges below apply if it happens within the horizon.
If no: timing median 29 Oct 2026
50% range: 8 Oct 2026 to 20 Dec 2026. 80% range: 26 Sep 2026 to 23 Jul 2027.
When will Iran and the United States next put into effect a mutually accepted ceasefire in this war · On or after 1 Jan 2027
63% chance of this condition
Default: 34% chance within the horizon (by 28 Aug 2028). Timing and ranges below apply if it happens within the horizon.
Default: timing median 8 May 2027
50% range: 2 Dec 2026 to 12 Nov 2027. 80% range: 18 Oct 2026 to 18 Apr 2028.
If yes: 24% chance within the horizon (by 28 Aug 2028). Timing and ranges below apply if it happens within the horizon.
If yes: timing median 28 Sep 2027
50% range: 22 May 2027 to 11 Feb 2028. 80% range: 23 Jan 2027 to 9 Jun 2028.
If no: 51% chance within the horizon (by 28 Aug 2028). Timing and ranges below apply if it happens within the horizon.
If no: timing median 17 Dec 2026
50% range: 10 Nov 2026 to 20 Jun 2027. 80% range: 4 Oct 2026 to 20 Dec 2027.
When will Iran and the United States next put into effect a mutually accepted ceasefire in this war · On or after 1 Nov 2026
79% chance of this condition
Default: 34% chance within the horizon (by 28 Aug 2028). Timing and ranges below apply if it happens within the horizon.
Default: timing median 8 May 2027
50% range: 2 Dec 2026 to 12 Nov 2027. 80% range: 18 Oct 2026 to 18 Apr 2028.
If yes: 29% chance within the horizon (by 28 Aug 2028). Timing and ranges below apply if it happens within the horizon.
If yes: timing median 31 Jul 2027
50% range: 27 Jan 2027 to 24 Dec 2027. 80% range: 25 Nov 2026 to 16 May 2028.
If no: 52% chance within the horizon (by 28 Aug 2028). Timing and ranges below apply if it happens within the horizon.
If no: timing median 29 Nov 2026
50% range: 18 Oct 2026 to 19 Apr 2027. 80% range: 27 Sep 2026 to 14 Nov 2027.
When the IAEA conducts an on-site inspection at any of Iran's Natanz, Fordow, or Isfahan nuclear sites
Timing conditional on occurring within the horizon
When the IAEA conducts an on-site inspection at any of Iran's Natanz, Fordow, or Isfahan nuclear sites
Timing conditional on occurring within the horizon
Forecast context
Clarifications
This question resolves to the date when, according to credible sources, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) conducts any type of on-site inspection of one or more of these Iranian nuclear sites: the Fordow Uranium Enrichment Plant, the Natanz Nuclear Facility, or the Isfahan Nuclear Technology/Research Center.
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