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Stamped snapshot2 Sep 2026, 16:16

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When the IAEA conducts an on-site inspection at any of Iran's Natanz, Fordow, or Isfahan nuclear sites

Clarifications: This question resolves to the date when, according to credible sources, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) conducts any type of on-site inspection of one or more of these Iranian nuclear sites: the Fordow Uranium Enrichment Plant, the Natanz Nuclear Facility, or the Isfahan Nuclear Technology/Research Center.
Published Sep 2, 2026 9 AM · Reliable information cutoff date: Sep 2, 2026 7 AM

Cumulative probability by date

0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2026Jan 2027Apr 2027Jul 2027Oct 2027Jan 2028Apr 2028Jul 2028
SummaryOne page

My 25th percentile prediction for an IAEA on-site inspection at Natanz, Fordow, or Isfahan is 31st October 2027 because the collapse of the Islamabad Memorandum, combined with Iran's "wartime conditions" and domestic legislative hurdles, has created a prolonged diplomatic and security impasse.

Scenarios
BaseBeyond the horizon4 scenarios modelled
If YES If NO

  1. When will the Iran–United States war first complete 30 consecutive days without a qualifying direct kinetic attack · On or after 1 Jan 2027 82%

    −40pp happens

    30 Nov 20264 Sep 2027

  2. When will the Iran–United States war first complete 30 consecutive days without a qualifying direct kinetic attack · On or after 1 Nov 2026 95%

    −26pp happens

    29 Oct 20267 Jun 2027

  3. When will Iran and the United States next put into effect a mutually accepted ceasefire in this war · On or after 1 Jan 2027 63%

    −27pp happens

    17 Dec 202628 Sep 2027

  4. When will Iran and the United States next put into effect a mutually accepted ceasefire in this war · On or after 1 Nov 2026 79%

    −23pp happens

    29 Nov 202631 Jul 2027

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