Stamped snapshot13 Aug 2026, 11:26
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
The number of confirmed cases of Bundibugyo Ebola in the US before August 2027
Clarifications: This question will resolve to the number of laboratory-confirmed cases of Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus (BVD) in patients whose infection was first confirmed in any of the 50 US states or the District of Columbia.
Cases caused by other Ebola virus species do not count.
Published Aug 11, 2026 2 PM · Reliable information cutoff date: Aug 11, 2026 12 PM
0.01
0
5
10
15
Most likely: 0.01
50% range
80% range
My most likely prediction for the number of laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo Ebola cases in the United States is 0.01 because strict travel prohibitions from affected regions and the policy of evacuating infected citizens to European facilities create structural barriers to domestic confirmation.
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