When Nvidia or Alphabet next fulfils a tenant-default backstop for a US AI data centre

My median prediction for Nvidia or Alphabet fulfilling a data-centre default backstop is never, because voluntary rescues and guarantee expirations prevent distress from triggering qualifying fulfilments.

Nvidia has disclosed tenant-default guarantees for AI data-centre leases, including OpenAI-related leases at SB Energy's PORTS campus. TeraWulf has disclosed Google backstops under which Google can pay a termination fee or assume Fluidstack leases following specified default events. These are distinct from purchases of unsold compute capacity and from construction cost-overrun guarantees. Sources: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000075/nvda-20260726.htm and https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1083301/000108330126000031/wulf-20251231.htm .

This forecast concerns the next fulfilment after 23:59 UTC on 5 November 2026 of a legally binding backstop executed by that time by Nvidia Corporation or Alphabet Inc., including their consolidated subsidiaries, supporting an unaffiliated third-party tenant's payment obligations for a US AI or HPC data-centre campus. Guarantees of obligations owed solely by the guarantor's own consolidated subsidiaries are excluded.

A qualifying fulfilment occurs when, because of a tenant payment default or insolvency event specified in the backstop, the guarantor actually pays an amount due under it, pays the contractual termination fee, or legally assumes the tenant's lease pursuant to it. A demand, contingent liability accrual or reserve alone does not qualify. Routine equity investments, voluntary rescue loans, ordinary cloud purchases, purchases under unsold-capacity commitments, construction cost-overrun payments and residual-value payments unrelated to tenant payment default or insolvency do not qualify. An ordinary purchase or replacement lease negotiated independently of an invoked default backstop does not qualify.

Use the earliest actual qualifying payment date or legally effective lease-assumption date, as documented in an SEC filing, public court record, official announcement by the guarantor, landlord or financing counterparty, or a rating-agency publication. Credible Reuters, Bloomberg, Financial Times or Wall Street Journal reporting is a fallback. If the exact day is not disclosed but fulfilment is confirmed to have occurred after 5 November 2026, use the first public confirmation date. Guarantees may become effective after the baseline date, provided the legally binding backstop was already executed by it. No particular tenant, campus or dollar amount is required.