Will a previously decommissioned US commercial nuclear power plant receive final federal approval to restart operations?

I predict an 18% probability that a previously decommissioned US commercial nuclear plant will receive final federal restart approval before the late-2026 deadline, driven by regulatory review timelines that push the leading candidate, Crane Clean Energy Center, into an expected early-to-mid-2027 decision.

A November 2025 article highlighted that rising electricity demand in the US, driven by AI and data centers, is spurring a search for new power sources. The article explicitly mentioned a potential "nuclear power comeback (nuclear power plants restart or extend their service life)" as a way to provide stable, baseload electricity. The restart of a large, decommissioned nuclear plant would be a significant event, potentially displacing a large amount of natural gas from the US power generation mix, which would in turn have an effect on the global LNG market.

This question resolves as "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a final, formal approval for a commercial nuclear power plant that has been permanently shut down (decommissioned) to restart regular electricity generation. The approval must be for a plant that was not in an operational or temporarily halted status as of November 1, 2025.

Approvals for lifetime extensions for currently operating plants do not count. The resolution trigger is the final regulatory approval from the NRC, not the actual restart of power generation. This question refers to commercial power plants, not research or military reactors.