When Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft or Oracle next discloses at least USD 1 billion of quarterly impairment charges on physical AI infrastructure

My median prediction for the next qualifying impairment disclosure is 5th August 2030 because Meta’s $135–145 billion capital-spending guidance for 2026 significantly elevates medium-term write-off risks.

Physical AI infrastructure includes GPUs, servers, networking equipment and data-centre buildings or infrastructure. This forecast tracks formal asset-value reductions at the five named cloud and technology companies. It separates physical investment losses from ordinary depreciation, goodwill impairments and changes in the stock-market value of AI companies.

Resolve on the first public disclosure date after 23:59 UTC on 5 November 2026 on which Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Meta Platforms Inc., Microsoft Corporation or Oracle Corporation reports at least USD 1.0 billion in pre-tax impairment charges or exceptional write-offs recognized in a single fiscal quarter and specifically attributed to physical AI infrastructure. Evaluate each consolidated company separately; do not sum across companies or across quarters.

Qualifying assets are AI-serving GPUs or servers, associated networking and cooling equipment, data-centre buildings and power infrastructure, including right-of-use assets and consolidated physical assets financed through subsidiaries. The company must quantify at least USD 1.0 billion attributable to qualifying assets. A mixed charge with no quantifiable qualifying portion is insufficient. Ordinary scheduled depreciation, a prospective change in depreciation useful lives without a recognized impairment or write-off, goodwill or intangible-asset impairments, losses on equity investments, unrecognized market-value declines and restructuring expenses unrelated to a write-down of qualifying physical assets are excluded.

Use SEC filings or official quarterly or annual earnings releases. An annual disclosure establishes the event only if it identifies a qualifying single quarter or if previously published quarterly data permit that quarter's charge to be computed unambiguously. Use the public disclosure date, not the end of the accounting quarter. Formal renaming or acquisition of a named company does not remove its consolidated successor from scope.