Confirmed measles cases reported in the United States for calendar year 2026
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Most likely value
3.57K cases
As of 24 Jul 2026, 11:50 UTC
Forecast distribution
Rationale
Full accessMy most likely prediction for confirmed measles cases in the United States for 2026 is 3,567.56 because kindergarten vaccination rates falling below the 95% herd immunity threshold are fueling record-breaking outbreaks that are expected to intensify with the return of the fall school season.
Forecast record
Forecast context
Clarifications
Resolves to the total number of confirmed measles cases reported in the United States for calendar year 2026, as published on the CDC's 'Measles Cases and Outbreaks' page (cdc.gov/measles/data-research) as of the first weekly update published on or after January 15, 2027. The count includes all confirmed cases reported for 2026 across US jurisdictions, including cases among international visitors, matching the headline 'confirmed measles cases reported in the United States in 2026' figure as presented by the CDC.
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