Stamped snapshot31 Jul 2026, 11:34

This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.

The share of the vote Marine Le Pen receives in the second round of the 2027 French presidential election

Clarifications: This forecast assumes that Marine Le Pen is one of the two candidates standing in the second round of the 2027 French presidential election and that the second round will not be annulled. This question resolves to the share of votes cast (suffrages exprimés) obtained by Marine Le Pen in the second round of the 2027 French presidential election, expressed as a percentage of the national total including overseas departments, collectivities and votes cast abroad, rounded to two decimal places, as proclaimed by the Conseil constitutionnel or the Ministère de l'Intérieur. If values differ, the resolution will wait for a final consolidation of the results.
Published Jul 31, 2026 10 AM · Reliable information cutoff date: Jul 31, 2026 8 AM
47.87
40
50
60
Most likely: 47.87
50% range
80% range

My most likely prediction for Marine Le Pen's vote share in the 2027 second round is 47.87% because record levels of institutional distrust and unprecedented gains among retirees and former Macron voters have largely dismantled the traditional "republican front" electoral ceiling.

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Scenarios
Base49.43 scenarios modelled
If YES If NO
  1. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be one of the two candidates in the second round of the 2027 French presidential election? 34%

    4855
  2. Will Édouard Philippe be one of the two candidates in the second round of the 2027 French presidential election? 46%

    5248
  3. Will Gabriel Attal be one of the two candidates standing in the second round of the 2027 French presidential election? 13%

    4950

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