The share of the vote Marine Le Pen receives in the second round of the 2027 French presidential election
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Most likely value
47.87%
As of 31 Jul 2026, 10:06 UTC
Forecast distribution
23% of this forecast is outside the question's 40.00%–55.00% range
Rationale
Full accessMy most likely prediction for Marine Le Pen's vote share in the 2027 second round is 47.87% because record levels of institutional distrust and unprecedented gains among retirees and former Macron voters have largely dismantled the traditional "republican front" electoral ceiling.
Forecast record
ScenariosFull access3
The share of the vote Marine Le Pen receives in the second round of the 2027 French presidential election
Will Édouard Philippe be one of the two candidates in the second round of the 2027 French presidential election?
46% chance of this condition
Default: mean 49.44
50% range: 46.08 to 53.94. 80% range: 43.44 to Unavailable.
If yes: mean 48.10
50% range: 45.22 to 50.42. 80% range: 43.00 to 53.02.
If no: mean 50.59
50% range: 46.98 to Unavailable. 80% range: 43.68 to Unavailable.
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be one of the two candidates in the second round of the 2027 French presidential election?
34% chance of this condition
Default: mean 49.44
50% range: 46.08 to 53.94. 80% range: 43.44 to Unavailable.
If yes: mean 51.64
50% range: 47.90 to Unavailable. 80% range: 43.77 to Unavailable.
If no: mean 48.31
50% range: 45.61 to 51.10. 80% range: 43.81 to 53.73.
Will Gabriel Attal be one of the two candidates standing in the second round of the 2027 French presidential election?
13% chance of this condition
Default: mean 49.44
50% range: 46.08 to 53.94. 80% range: 43.44 to Unavailable.
If yes: mean 49.32
50% range: 46.67 to 52.69. 80% range: 43.88 to 55.00.
If no: mean 49.45
50% range: 46.01 to 54.36. 80% range: 43.38 to Unavailable.
The share of the vote Marine Le Pen receives in the second round of the 2027 French presidential election
The share of the vote Marine Le Pen receives in the second round of the 2027 French presidential election
Forecast context
Clarifications
This forecast assumes that Marine Le Pen is one of the two candidates standing in the second round of the 2027 French presidential election and that the second round will not be annulled.
This question resolves to the share of votes cast (suffrages exprimés) obtained by Marine Le Pen in the second round of the 2027 French presidential election, expressed as a percentage of the national total including overseas departments, collectivities and votes cast abroad, rounded to two decimal places, as proclaimed by the Conseil constitutionnel or the Ministère de l'Intérieur. If values differ, the resolution will wait for a final consolidation of the results.
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