This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
When the next US hyperscaler announces a $1bn+ data centre commitment in Brazil
Cumulative probability by date
My median prediction for the next US hyperscaler to announce a $1bn+ data centre commitment in Brazil is 4th October 2027 because current major capital cycles run through mid-2027 while companies pause headline spending to await post-2026 election political stability and the resolution of state-level hardware tax frameworks.
The winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election · Flávio Bolsonaro 40%
+11pp happens
The winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 56%
−9pp happens
The winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election · Augusto Cury 1%
no change to whether it happens
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