Stamped snapshot30 Jul 2026, 13:26

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The composition of the Swedish government in office on 31 December 2026

Clarifications: Resolve using the composition of the Swedish government published on regeringen.se as of 31 December 2026. Count only parties holding cabinet minister (statsråd) posts. Reshuffles of individual ministers do not change the answer if the party composition and prime ministerial party remain the same. If no new government has been formed by 31 December 2026, resolve to D. A means all cabinet ministers belong to Socialdemokraterna. B means the cabinet includes ministers from Socialdemokraterna and at least one of Miljöpartiet, Centerpartiet, or Vänsterpartiet. C means the prime minister is from Moderaterna, Kristdemokraterna, or Liberalerna, whether governing alone, in coalition, or with formal support from Sverigedemokraterna. D covers any other cabinet composition, including caretaker government or a government formed after a second election.
Published Jul 30, 2026 12 PM · Reliable information cutoff date: Jul 30, 2026 10 AM
A. Social Democrat-only cabinet
31.8%
B. Social Democrat-led coalition
39.8%
C. Moderate-led or Tidö-aligned cabinet
13.4%
D. Other configuration
15.1%

I predict a 72% probability that a Social Democrat-led government will take office by year-end 2026, driven by a commanding 55.2% polling lead for the center-left opposition and the likely parliamentary collapse of the incumbent-aligned Liberal Party.

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