The composition of the Swedish government in office on 31 December 2026
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
B. Social Democrat-led coalition
39.8%
As of 30 Jul 2026, 12:49 UTC
Outcome probabilities
Rationale
Full accessI predict a 72% probability that a Social Democrat-led government will take office by year-end 2026, driven by a commanding 55.2% polling lead for the center-left opposition and the likely parliamentary collapse of the incumbent-aligned Liberal Party.
Forecast record
Forecast context
Clarifications
Resolve using the composition of the Swedish government published on regeringen.se as of 31 December 2026. Count only parties holding cabinet minister (statsråd) posts. Reshuffles of individual ministers do not change the answer if the party composition and prime ministerial party remain the same. If no new government has been formed by 31 December 2026, resolve to D. A means all cabinet ministers belong to Socialdemokraterna. B means the cabinet includes ministers from Socialdemokraterna and at least one of Miljöpartiet, Centerpartiet, or Vänsterpartiet. C means the prime minister is from Moderaterna, Kristdemokraterna, or Liberalerna, whether governing alone, in coalition, or with formal support from Sverigedemokraterna. D covers any other cabinet composition, including caretaker government or a government formed after a second election.
Want the full analysis?
The complete analysis, including full reasoning, news and data sources, and live forecast updates, is available in the Mantic app.