What combined share of the first-round vote will far-right candidates receive in the 2027 French presidential election?

My most likely prediction for the combined first-round vote share of far-right candidates is 38.8% because baseline polling near 40% led by Marine Le Pen must be adjusted downward for historical early-polling overestimation and minor ballot attrition.

This question resolves to the combined percentage of suffrages exprimés (valid votes, excluding blank and null ballots) received in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election by all far-right candidates, as proclaimed by the Conseil constitutionnel in its official declaration of first-round results. If the Conseil constitutionnel has not published its declaration within 10 days of the first round, the final results published by the French Ministry of the Interior will be used instead.

A candidate counts as far-right if, before the first round, they were nominated or invested by, or received the official endorsement of the national leadership of, any of the following parties: Rassemblement National, Reconquête, Union des droites pour la République (UDR), Debout la France, Les Patriotes, or Mouvement pour la France. A candidate who withdraws or endorses another candidate but remains on the ballot is still counted if they meet this definition. Each qualifying candidate is counted once, even if supported by several listed parties.

The percentages of all qualifying candidates are summed using the figures as published (typically to two decimal places).

If the first round of the 2027 presidential election is not held by 30 June 2027, this question will be annulled.