Stamped snapshot18 Aug 2026, 10:58

This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis โ€” the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.

Starship Flight 14 achieves orbit

Clarifications: This question resolves to Yes if the upper stage of the fourteenth integrated flight test of SpaceX's Starship achieves orbital insertion. Orbital insertion is established by any of the following: The upper stage is assigned an international designator and catalogued as an object in Earth orbit by the United States Space Force, as published via Space-Track, or is recorded as having reached Earth orbit in Jonathan McDowell's General Catalog of Artificial Space Objects. Credible sources report, or published trajectory data or independent trajectory analysis establishes, that at the conclusion of the upper stage's ascent, including any circularization burn, the vehicle was on a trajectory with osculating perigee altitude at or above 80 km above the WGS-84 ellipsoid. A payload deployed from the upper stage during the flight, having performed no orbit-raising propulsion of its own, is assigned an international designator and catalogued as an object in Earth orbit by either source named above. The fourteenth integrated flight test is the fourteenth occasion on which a Starship upper stage, stacked on a Super Heavy booster or a successor first stage, lifts off from the pad, counting the flight of April 20, 2023 as the first, and regardless of the designation SpaceX applies to it. A Starship upper stage is any vehicle SpaceX publicly identifies as the second stage of its Starship programme, or of a successor programme SpaceX identifies as continuing it, and whose maximum outer diameter is at least 8 metres. Falcon family vehicles and their derivatives do not qualify. Trajectories with osculating perigee altitude below 80 km do not resolve this question Yes, whether or not orbital velocity is attained at any point in flight, and whether or not the vehicle's ground track covers more than one revolution. This explicitly excludes transatmospheric trajectories of the kind flown on the twelfth and thirteenth integrated flight tests. The vehicle is not required to complete one full revolution. A deliberate deorbit burn, a reentry, a landing attempt, a tower catch attempt, or the loss or destruction of the vehicle at any point after the conclusion of its ascent, do not affect resolution. Deployment of a payload is not required, and failure to deploy a payload does not affect resolution. A scrub, an abort before liftoff, or the loss of a vehicle before liftoff does not count as an occasion for the purposes of the count above.
Published Aug 10, 2026 2 PM ยท Reliable information cutoff date: Aug 10, 2026 12 PM
Yes
67.8%
No
32.3%

I predict a 68% probability that Starship Flight 14 will achieve orbital insertion, as the transition to Block 3 architecture and Raptor 3 engines provides the necessary performance margins for the program's first successful circularization burn.

For more information, use the forecast chat.

Want the full analysis?

The complete analysis โ€” full reasoning, news and data sources, and live forecast updates โ€” is available in the Mantic app.

Contact Mantic