When the next US government shutdown begins

My median prediction for the next US government shutdown to begin is December 1, 2026, as I anticipate a short-term funding bridge will avoid a pre-election lapse only to succumb to partisan deadlock over the SAVE America Act and defense spending during the post-election lame-duck session.

The shutdown begins when there is a lapse in appropriations that causes a shutdown of any federal department or agency funded through annual appropriations. A shutdown counts as begun at the first moment any such lapse takes effect. Partial shutdowns count. A continuing resolution or other funding measure enacted before a lapse prevents a shutdown from occurring at that time.