Stamped snapshot29 Jul 2026, 14:30
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis โ the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
When the next US government shutdown begins
Clarifications: The shutdown begins when there is a lapse in appropriations that causes a shutdown of any federal department or agency funded through annual appropriations. A shutdown counts as begun at the first moment any such lapse takes effect. Partial shutdowns count. A continuing resolution or other funding measure enacted before a lapse prevents a shutdown from occurring at that time.
Published Jul 29, 2026 2 PM ยท Reliable information cutoff date: Jul 29, 2026 12 PM
Cumulative probability
My median prediction for the next US government shutdown to begin is December 1, 2026, as I anticipate a short-term funding bridge will avoid a pre-election lapse only to succumb to partisan deadlock over the SAVE America Act and defense spending during the post-election lame-duck session.
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The complete analysis โ full reasoning, news and data sources, and live forecast updates โ is available in the Mantic app.