Stamped snapshot2 Sep 2026, 13:21
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
How The New York Times v. OpenAI and Microsoft copyright case ultimately is resolved
Clarifications: Resolve to the outcome that best matches the case's final procedural posture. 'Settlement before trial' means the case ends by settlement before any trial verdict is reached. 'Settlement after trial or during appeal' means the parties settle after a trial verdict or while an appeal is pending. 'OpenAI/Microsoft win on fair use' means a final judgment for OpenAI and Microsoft on the merits based on fair use, including any appellate affirmance. 'The New York Times verdict upheld' means The New York Times obtains a verdict or final judgment on the merits and that result is not reversed on appeal. 'Dismissal on other grounds' means the case ends without a merits ruling for either side, including dismissal for lack of standing, jurisdiction, procedural defects, or other non-fair-use grounds.
Published Sep 1, 2026 6 PM · Reliable information cutoff date: Sep 1, 2026 4 PM
Settlement before trial
53.5%
Settlement after a trial verdict or during appeal
10.4%
OpenAI and Microsoft win on fair use
17.8%
The New York Times wins and the verdict stands
14.0%
Case ends on other grounds without a merits ruling
4.4%
For more information, use the forecast chat.
Want the full analysis?
The complete analysis — full reasoning, news and data sources, and live forecast updates — is available in the Mantic app.