When Israel next strikes an Iranian oil or gas production, processing, storage or export facility

My median prediction for Israel's next strike on an Iranian oil or gas facility is 6th January 2028 because Polymarket priced a ceasefire breakdown by end-2026 at 53%.

Attacks on Iranian oil and gas infrastructure would represent a specific escalation with potential consequences for energy supply and regional risk. This forecast separates such targeting from attacks confined to military or nuclear facilities.

Resolves to the first date after 20 October 2026 on which Israeli armed forces deliberately conduct an air, drone, or missile attack that physically impacts an oil or natural-gas production, processing, storage, or export facility within Iran's internationally recognized land territory or territorial waters. Qualifying facilities include producing oil or gas fields and platforms, refineries, gas-processing and LNG facilities, commercial tank farms, and oil or gas export terminals. Civilian or dual-use commercial facilities qualify regardless of ownership. A joint attack involving Israeli armed forces qualifies.

Nuclear facilities, electricity-only infrastructure, retail petrol stations, and fuel stores used solely to supply a military base do not qualify. Pipelines in transit outside a qualifying facility do not qualify. An attack on a nearby military target does not count solely because it incidentally damages an oil or gas facility; the facility itself must be an intended target. Cyberattacks, covert ground sabotage, accidents, unattributed explosions, proxy attacks, and attempted attacks whose weapons are all intercepted before reaching the facility do not count.

Israeli responsibility, the intended facility target, and physical impact must be confirmed by an official Israeli acknowledgement or consistent reporting by at least two independent major news organizations such as Reuters, AP, AFP, or BBC. The facility need not cease operating, and no minimum damage or production loss is required.