Stamped snapshot4 Aug 2026, 07:54
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Global insured losses from natural catastrophes in 2026
Clarifications: Resolve using the full-year 2026 global insured losses from natural catastrophes as reported or estimated by Swiss Re or Munich Re. Use the single best headline figure for global insured losses in 2026; if both firms publish figures, use the one that is most directly stated as the global annual total or the first one if it is not distinguishable. The amount should be in nominal US dollars and include insured losses from natural catastrophes worldwide.
Published Aug 3, 2026 1 PM · Reliable information cutoff date: Aug 3, 2026 11 AM
100.64
80
100
120
140
160
Most likely: 100.64
50% range
80% range
My most likely prediction for global insured natural catastrophe losses in 2026 is 100.64 USD billion because a lower-than-average loss total from the first half of the year and a suppression of Atlantic hurricane activity due to El Niño will likely outweigh the impact of rising reconstruction costs and potential Pacific-region weather extremes.
For more information, use the forecast chat.
Want the full analysis?
The complete analysis — full reasoning, news and data sources, and live forecast updates — is available in the Mantic app.