The number of confirmed 2026 Bundibugyo Ebola cases
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Most likely value
8K cases
As of 12 Aug 2026, 13:25 UTC
Forecast distribution
Rationale
Full accessMy most likely prediction for the number of confirmed 2026 Bundibugyo Ebola cases is 7,999.56 because the current high rate of untraced community transmission and M23-related security barriers are expected to persist despite an anticipated late-year slowdown from Phase 3 vaccine trials and increased international aid.
Forecast record
Forecast context
Clarifications
This question will resolve to the cumulative number of confirmed Ebola cases attributed to the 2026 Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak, according to the latest WHO report released in 2026.
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