In which year will UK defence spending first reach 3% of GDP, by NATO's estimate?

My most likely year for UK defence spending to reach 3% of GDP is 2030, with a 19% probability, because ministers maintain that target despite Ministry of Defence plans holding spending near 2.7%.

The UK is committed to NATO's target of 3.5% of GDP on core defence by 2035. Healey, who resigned as defence secretary over a 3% by 2030 commitment, has shelved that target as chancellor; the Budget is expected to plug a £4.7bn gap and leave a bigger rise to the spending review. Reaching 3% by 2030 would cost about £11bn a year (IMF). NATO estimated UK core defence spending at 2.56% of GDP for 2026 (July 2026).

The earliest year, as labelled by NATO, whose first published NATO estimate shows UK defence expenditure (excluding the 1.5% resilience category) at or above 3.00% of GDP. Later revisions do not count.