When Strait of Hormuz transits recover to a 7-day moving average of ≥50 for 30 consecutive days

My median prediction for Strait of Hormuz transits to recover to a 7-day moving average of 50 for 30 consecutive days is 24th November 2027, driven by the lengthy timelines required for demining, the normalization of prohibitive insurance premiums, and a return to standard AIS reporting.

Pre-war, the Strait of Hormuz averaged roughly 138 commercial transits per day. Since the war began on 28 February 2026, traffic has collapsed to around 4–5% of normal — Goldman Sachs estimated ~4% in late April. The combination of Iranian PGSA restrictions, the US naval blockade, soaring war-risk insurance premiums, and reluctance by major carriers has kept volumes at a small fraction of pre-war norms. This question asks when transits recover to roughly one-third of pre-war levels (50/day on a 7-day moving average) and hold there for a month.

This question will resolve as the first day, after May 11 2026, on which IMF PortWatch reports that the 7-day moving average for the Strait of Hormuz is at least 50 for 30 straight days.