How many U.S. Supreme Court justices will announce retirement between 4 November 2026 and 31 July 2028?
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Most likely value
1 justices
As of 28 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC
Forecast distribution
Rationale
Full accessMy most likely value for U.S. Supreme Court retirement announcements between November 2026 and July 2028 is one, at a 44% probability, driven by Samuel Alito telling Bloomberg he would reconsider retirement in 2027.
Forecast breakdown
Full accessForecast record
ScenariosFull access3
How many U.S. Supreme Court justices will announce retirement between 4 November 2026 and 31 July 2028?
Which parties will control the U.S. House and Senate after the 2026 midterm elections · Democrats control both chambers
65% chance of this condition
Default: mean 1 justices
50% range: 0 justices to 1 justices. 80% range: 0 justices to 1 justices.
If yes: mean 1 justices
50% range: 0 justices to 1 justices. 80% range: 0 justices to 1 justices.
If no: mean 1 justices
50% range: 1 justices to 1 justices. 80% range: 0 justices to 2 justices.
Which parties will control the U.S. House and Senate after the 2026 midterm elections · Republicans control both chambers
6% chance of this condition
Default: mean 1 justices
50% range: 0 justices to 1 justices. 80% range: 0 justices to 1 justices.
If yes: mean 1 justices
50% range: 1 justices to 2 justices. 80% range: 1 justices to 2 justices.
If no: mean 1 justices
50% range: 0 justices to 1 justices. 80% range: 0 justices to 1 justices.
Which parties will control the U.S. House and Senate after the 2026 midterm elections · Democrats control the House; Republicans control the Senate
26% chance of this condition
Default: mean 1 justices
50% range: 0 justices to 1 justices. 80% range: 0 justices to 1 justices.
If yes: mean 1 justices
50% range: 1 justices to 1 justices. 80% range: 1 justices to 2 justices.
If no: mean 1 justices
50% range: 0 justices to 1 justices. 80% range: 0 justices to 1 justices.
Values in justices
How many U.S. Supreme Court justices will announce retirement between 4 November 2026 and 31 July 2028?
How many U.S. Supreme Court justices will announce retirement between 4 November 2026 and 31 July 2028?
Forecast context
An announced retirement may take effect later, including after confirmation of a successor. This forecast counts public retirement decisions rather than nominations, confirmations, or the number of vacant seats. Official Court announcements: https://www.supremecourt.gov/publicinfo/press/pressreleases.aspx
Clarifications
Resolves to the number of distinct sitting U.S. Supreme Court justices whose retirement is publicly announced between 4 November 2026 and 31 July 2028 inclusive, using U.S. Eastern Time. A qualifying announcement must be made by the justice, an official representative acting for the justice, or the Supreme Court acting on the justice's behalf.
A retirement conditional on confirmation of a successor qualifies, and the retirement need not take effect within the window. Count each justice once, including a justice appointed during the window. Speculation, statements that retirement is being considered, temporary leave, and an announcement first made before 4 November 2026 do not qualify. An announcement still counts if the retirement is subsequently postponed or withdrawn. Use official Supreme Court publications or an attributable public statement confirmed by Reuters or AP. Resolves to zero if no justice qualifies.
Want the full analysis?
The complete analysis, including full reasoning, news and data sources, and live forecast updates, is available in the Mantic app.