The gap in percentage points between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election (Lula's vote share minus Flávio Bolsonaro's), using valid votes

My most likely prediction for the first-round gap between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro is 1.05 percentage points in Lula's favor because final polls showing a narrow 1 to 3 point lead must be discounted for historical undercounting of Bolsonaro voters and late right-wing consolidation.

Resolve using the official first-round result of Brazil's 2026 presidential election, measured on valid votes only. Compute the gap as Lula's percentage of valid votes minus Flávio Bolsonaro's percentage of valid votes. If one or both candidates do not qualify as valid first-round candidates or do not receive votes, use their official first-round valid-vote shares as recorded. The result may be negative if Flávio Bolsonaro receives a higher valid-vote share than Lula.