When Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France

My median prediction for Sébastien Lecornu to leave office is 12th May 2027 because French presidential handovers consistently bring prime-ministerial changes at the end of the presidential term.

In August 2026, the French government issued a decree tightening its oversight of foreign investments to protect national security. The new rules lower the review threshold for non-European investors acquiring stakes in sensitive publicly traded French companies from 25% to 10%. This regulatory push, alongside parallel parliamentary missions to bolster economic security, has been a central initiative of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's government. The longevity and stability of Lecornu's administration are critical for market participants navigating France's evolving regulatory, fiscal, and economic landscape. A change in government leadership could herald significant shifts in national policy, directly impacting financial markets, bond yields, and capital allocation.

This question resolves on the date that Sébastien Lecornu officially ceases to hold the office of Prime Minister of France. This includes his formal resignation taking effect, dismissal by the President, the appointment of a successor following a successful parliamentary vote of no confidence, or his death.

If Lecornu formally resigns but is asked by the President to remain in a "caretaker" (expédition des affaires courantes) capacity, the question will not resolve until the date a new Prime Minister is officially appointed and takes office.