Stamped snapshot

When will the FDA approve uniQure's AMT-130 for Huntington's disease?

This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.

Chance by 14 Oct 2027

45.0%

As of 14 Oct 2026, 16:16 UTC

Probability by date

Full access

Rationale

Full access

My median prediction for FDA approval of AMT-130 is 26th January 2028 because uniQure's four-year data showed a 44% slowing in disease progression without achieving statistical significance.

Forecast breakdown

Full access

Forecast record

ScenariosFull access1

1 scenario modelled

When will the FDA approve uniQure's AMT-130 for Huntington's disease?

Timing conditional on occurring within the horizon

Default timing median30 Jul 2027
On or after 1 Dec 202610 Aug 2027Before 1 Dec 20267 Jul 2027

Forecast context

uniQure submitted a Biologics License Application on 2 September 2026 seeking accelerated approval of AMT-130 (ifezuntirgene inilparvovec), a one-time AAV gene therapy delivered by neurosurgery, for Huntington's disease. The application relies on comparisons with an external natural-history control, an approach on which the FDA's position has shifted during development. The FDA's decision on whether to accept the filing is due around early November 2026; with priority review an action date would fall around the second quarter of 2027. AMT-130 would be the first disease-modifying treatment approved for Huntington's disease. CBER also decides Capricor's deramiocel (PDUFA 22 November 2026), another therapy filed on contested evidence.

Clarifications

Resolves on the date the US FDA approves AMT-130 (accelerated or full approval) for Huntington's disease, as shown by an FDA announcement, the approval letter or a uniQure press release. A refusal to file or a Complete Response Letter does not resolve the question; a later approval does.

Want the full analysis?

The complete analysis, including full reasoning, news and data sources, and live forecast updates, is available in the Mantic app.

Contact Mantic
When will the FDA approve uniQure's AMT-130 for Huntington's disease? | Mantic