When will the FDA approve uniQure's AMT-130 for Huntington's disease?
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Chance by 14 Oct 2027
45.0%
As of 14 Oct 2026, 16:16 UTC
Probability by date
Full accessRationale
Full accessMy median prediction for FDA approval of AMT-130 is 26th January 2028 because uniQure's four-year data showed a 44% slowing in disease progression without achieving statistical significance.
Forecast breakdown
Full accessForecast record
ScenariosFull access1
When will the FDA approve uniQure's AMT-130 for Huntington's disease?
When will the FDA approve Capricor Therapeutics' deramiocel for Duchenne muscular dystrophy · On or after 1 Dec 2026
77% chance of this condition
Default: 73% chance within the horizon (by 2 Jan 2034). Timing and ranges below apply if it happens within the horizon.
Default: timing median 30 Jul 2027
50% range: 1 May 2027 to 14 May 2028. 80% range: 24 Apr 2027 to 29 Jun 2029.
On or after 1 Dec 2026: 68% chance within the horizon (by 2 Jan 2034). Timing and ranges below apply if it happens within the horizon.
On or after 1 Dec 2026: timing median 10 Aug 2027
50% range: 2 May 2027 to 24 Jul 2028. 80% range: 26 Apr 2027 to 24 Mar 2030.
Before 1 Dec 2026: 89% chance within the horizon (by 2 Jan 2034). Timing and ranges below apply if it happens within the horizon.
Before 1 Dec 2026: timing median 7 Jul 2027
50% range: 28 Apr 2027 to 10 Nov 2027. 80% range: 21 Apr 2027 to 24 Sep 2028.
When will the FDA approve uniQure's AMT-130 for Huntington's disease?
Timing conditional on occurring within the horizon
When will the FDA approve uniQure's AMT-130 for Huntington's disease?
Timing conditional on occurring within the horizon
Forecast context
uniQure submitted a Biologics License Application on 2 September 2026 seeking accelerated approval of AMT-130 (ifezuntirgene inilparvovec), a one-time AAV gene therapy delivered by neurosurgery, for Huntington's disease. The application relies on comparisons with an external natural-history control, an approach on which the FDA's position has shifted during development. The FDA's decision on whether to accept the filing is due around early November 2026; with priority review an action date would fall around the second quarter of 2027. AMT-130 would be the first disease-modifying treatment approved for Huntington's disease. CBER also decides Capricor's deramiocel (PDUFA 22 November 2026), another therapy filed on contested evidence.
Clarifications
Resolves on the date the US FDA approves AMT-130 (accelerated or full approval) for Huntington's disease, as shown by an FDA announcement, the approval letter or a uniQure press release. A refusal to file or a Complete Response Letter does not resolve the question; a later approval does.
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