Will the 2027 Nigerian presidential election go to a second round?

I predict an 81% likelihood that Nigeria's 2027 presidential election will be decided on the first ballot, driven by the ruling APC's strong state-level dominance ensuring an incumbent plurality meets constitutional spread requirements against a fractured opposition.

This question resolves Yes if, following the first ballot of the 2027 Nigerian presidential election (currently scheduled for 16 January 2027), the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) officially announces that no candidate has been duly elected under Section 134(2) of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (i.e. no candidate won the highest number of votes while also receiving at least 25% of the votes cast in at least two-thirds of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory), and that a second election (runoff) will be held. An official INEC announcement of a second election is sufficient for Yes, even if that second election is later postponed or cancelled.

It resolves No if INEC declares a candidate elected on the first ballot.

The following do not count as a second election for this question: supplementary or rerun elections limited to specific polling units, wards, local government areas or states; and any rerun ordered by an election petition tribunal or court after a winner has been declared.

Resolution will be based on INEC's official announcements, as reported by INEC or credible outlets such as Reuters, the BBC, Premium Times or Punch. If the first ballot of the presidential election is not held by 30 June 2027, this question will be annulled.