The share of mainland China's soybean imports in calendar 2027 that originates in Brazil, by weight

My most likely value for Brazil's share of mainland China's soybean imports in 2027 is 67%, because China's additional 10% tariff on US soybeans continues to restrict private Chinese purchases.

Brazil and the United States compete to supply China's soybean imports. USDA's September 2026 Oilseeds and Products Update describes continued purchases of US soybeans by Chinese state-owned enterprises alongside commercial buyers' reliance on South American origins under China's additional tariff on US soybeans. This forecast measures Brazil's share of physical imports, rather than the value of exports or announced purchase commitments. Source: https://fas-prod.azureedge.us/data/gain/2026/09/china-oilseeds-and-products-update

Resolves to 100 multiplied by the net weight of Brazilian-origin soybeans imported into mainland China during 1 January-31 December 2027, divided by the net weight of mainland China's soybean imports from all origins during that period. Include all soybeans under HS heading 1201, including seed; exclude soybean meal and oil. Use country of origin, not country of dispatch. Hong Kong and Macao are excluded. Use General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) calendar-2027 data, using the latest full-year figures published by 31 March 2028 for both numerator and denominator. If GACC has not published a complete comparable breakdown by that date, use China's reporter-side UN Comtrade data for HS1201, Brazil and World, as available on 31 July 2028. If neither is complete by then, use the first subsequent complete GACC breakdown, or China's corresponding UN Comtrade breakdown if it appears first. Never mix Brazilian export statistics with Chinese import statistics, values with weights, or different reporting vintages.