When the US enacts a federal law that explicitly preempts state-level artificial intelligence regulations
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Chance by 28 Oct 2027
22.1%
As of 28 Oct 2026, 16:16 UTC
Probability by date
Full accessRationale
Full accessMy median prediction for enactment of a federal AI-preemption law is 23rd August 2029 because the Senate's 99–1 vote removing a moratorium on state regulation signals durable bipartisan resistance.
Forecast breakdown
Full accessForecast record
ScenariosFull access3
When the US enacts a federal law that explicitly preempts state-level artificial intelligence regulations
Which parties will control the U.S. House and Senate after the 2026 midterm elections · Democrats control both chambers
65% chance of this condition
Default: 70% chance by 6 Oct 2036.
Default: median 14 Aug 2029
50% range: 12 Dec 2027 to Beyond horizon. 80% range: 9 Jan 2027 to Beyond horizon.
If yes: 69% chance by 6 Oct 2036.
If yes: median 8 Nov 2029
50% range: 12 Jan 2028 to Beyond horizon. 80% range: 12 May 2027 to Beyond horizon.
If no: 71% chance by 6 Oct 2036.
If no: median 2 Feb 2029
50% range: 30 Sep 2027 to Beyond horizon. 80% range: 24 Dec 2026 to Beyond horizon.
Which parties will control the U.S. House and Senate after the 2026 midterm elections · Republicans control both chambers
6% chance of this condition
Default: 70% chance by 6 Oct 2036.
Default: median 14 Aug 2029
50% range: 12 Dec 2027 to Beyond horizon. 80% range: 9 Jan 2027 to Beyond horizon.
If yes: 74% chance by 6 Oct 2036.
If yes: median 28 Sep 2028
50% range: 26 Sep 2027 to Beyond horizon. 80% range: 5 Mar 2027 to Beyond horizon.
If no: 70% chance by 6 Oct 2036.
If no: median 16 Sep 2029
50% range: 18 Dec 2027 to Beyond horizon. 80% range: 4 Jan 2027 to Beyond horizon.
Which parties will control the U.S. House and Senate after the 2026 midterm elections · Democrats control the House; Republicans control the Senate
26% chance of this condition
Default: 70% chance by 6 Oct 2036.
Default: median 14 Aug 2029
50% range: 12 Dec 2027 to Beyond horizon. 80% range: 9 Jan 2027 to Beyond horizon.
If yes: 66% chance by 6 Oct 2036.
If yes: median 21 Jun 2030
50% range: 19 Jan 2028 to Beyond horizon. 80% range: 14 Apr 2027 to Beyond horizon.
If no: 71% chance by 6 Oct 2036.
If no: median 24 May 2029
50% range: 9 Dec 2027 to Beyond horizon. 80% range: 1 Jan 2027 to Beyond horizon.
When the US enacts a federal law that explicitly preempts state-level artificial intelligence regulations
When the US enacts a federal law that explicitly preempts state-level artificial intelligence regulations
Forecast context
According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll from October 2026, a bipartisan majority of US voters believe the federal government is not taking AI risks seriously enough and support stronger federal regulations. In the absence of comprehensive federal action, a patchwork of state-level laws has emerged, regulating everything from election deepfakes to AI model development and deployment. This fragmentation has prompted intense lobbying from major tech companies and frontier AI developers, who are pushing Congress to preempt state laws. Bipartisan draft legislation, such as proposals from Representatives Jay Obernolte and Lori Trahan, has included provisions to preempt state AI rules, though advancing such legislation through a divided Congress remains challenging.
Clarifications
This question resolves on the date the US President signs into law legislation that explicitly preempts one or more types of state-level artificial intelligence regulations. The legislation must contain language specifically restricting or superseding the authority of states to regulate the development, deployment, or use of artificial intelligence models or AI-generated content. Preemption of broader privacy or data security laws does not count unless the preemption clause specifically targets AI or machine learning.
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