Stamped snapshot18 Aug 2026, 18:27
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
The average Q4 2026 price of jet fuel
Jet fuel is the main aviation fuel, refined from crude alongside diesel.
Clarifications: This question is conditional on the Strait of Hormuz being closed at the end of 2026. It will be considered closed if either, using IMF PortWatch daily transit calls (https://portwatch.imf.org): 1. the average over July 1 - December 31 2026 is ≤ 20 ships/day, or 2. the 7-day moving average exceeds 40 ships/day on no more than 14 days total over that period.
Conditional on the closure condition above, this question resolves to the average US Gulf Coast kerosene-type jet fuel spot price (USD/gallon) over Q4 2026 (Oct 1 - Dec 31), as published by the EIA. Source: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm.
Published Aug 5, 2026 8 PM · Reliable information cutoff date: Aug 5, 2026 6 PM
4.27
0
2
4
6
Most likely: 4.27
50% range
80% range
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Scenarios
Base mean4.043 scenarios modelled
If YES If NO
The US government announces a restriction, quota, or ban on the export of refined petroleum products before November 1, 2026. 6%
US ending stocks of distillate fuel oil for the week ending September 25, 2026 >= 105 millions of barrels 54%
The US Department of Energy announces a new release of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve between August 14, 2026 and November 1, 2026. 17%
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