The average Q4 2026 price of jet fuel
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Most likely value
4.27 USD/gallon
As of 5 Aug 2026, 20:50 UTC
Forecast distribution
Rationale
Full accessMy most likely prediction for the average Q4 2026 jet fuel price is 4.27 USD/gallon because the sustained blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is driving Brent crude toward 120 USD/barrel while severely constraining global refining capacity and middle distillate inventories.
Forecast record
ScenariosFull access3
The average Q4 2026 price of jet fuel
US ending stocks of distillate fuel oil for the week ending September 25, 2026 >= 105 millions of barrels
54% chance of this condition
Default: mean 4.04
50% range: 3.61 to 4.55. 80% range: 3.13 to 4.91.
If yes: mean 3.87
50% range: 3.42 to 4.28. 80% range: 3.05 to 4.67.
If no: mean 4.23
50% range: 3.94 to 4.79. 80% range: 3.09 to 5.00.
The US Department of Energy announces a new release of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve between August 14, 2026 and November 1, 2026.
17% chance of this condition
Default: mean 4.04
50% range: 3.61 to 4.55. 80% range: 3.13 to 4.91.
If yes: mean 3.76
50% range: 3.24 to 4.03. 80% range: 2.99 to 4.48.
If no: mean 4.09
50% range: 3.73 to 4.64. 80% range: 3.19 to 4.98.
The US government announces a restriction, quota, or ban on the export of refined petroleum products before November 1, 2026.
6% chance of this condition
Default: mean 4.04
50% range: 3.61 to 4.55. 80% range: 3.13 to 4.91.
If yes: mean 3.58
50% range: 2.99 to 4.03. 80% range: 2.50 to 4.49.
If no: mean 4.07
50% range: 3.65 to 4.56. 80% range: 3.16 to 4.91.
The average Q4 2026 price of jet fuel
The average Q4 2026 price of jet fuel
Forecast context
Jet fuel is the main aviation fuel, refined from crude alongside diesel.
Clarifications
This question is conditional on the Strait of Hormuz being closed at the end of 2026. It will be considered closed if either, using IMF PortWatch daily transit calls (https://portwatch.imf.org): 1. the average over July 1 - December 31 2026 is ≤ 20 ships/day, or 2. the 7-day moving average exceeds 40 ships/day on no more than 14 days total over that period.
Conditional on the closure condition above, this question resolves to the average US Gulf Coast kerosene-type jet fuel spot price (USD/gallon) over Q4 2026 (Oct 1 - Dec 31), as published by the EIA. Source: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm.
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