Stamped snapshot

How many demonstrators will the French Interior Ministry report nationwide for 24 October 2026?

This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.

Most likely value

168.54K demonstrators

As of 21 Oct 2026, 10:49 UTC

Forecast distribution

50%80%

Rationale

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My most likely value for nationwide demonstrators on 24 October 2026 is about 170,000, because the second yellow-vest Saturday retained only about 38% of turnout after an initial peak.

Forecast breakdown

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Forecast record

Forecast context

A further nationwide mobilisation has been called for 24 October 2026 following the 17 October protests. Source: https://www.aa.com.tr/fr/france/france-gilets-jaunes-un-appel-%C3%A0-un-acte-ii-de-mobilisation-samedi-24-octobre/4093336 .

Clarifications

Resolve to the French Interior Ministry's latest comprehensive national estimate, published before 1 November 2026, of the number of participants in the 24 October 2026 nationwide protest mobilisation over living costs, public services and related grievances. Use the ministry's total as published, rather than attempting to deduplicate individuals across gatherings. Include peaceful participants as well as other demonstrators. The estimate may be taken directly from a ministry publication or from an explicit attribution to the ministry in AFP or Reuters reporting. Do not substitute an organiser, union, media-independent or crowd-counting estimate, a Paris-only estimate, or turnout for another day. If no nationwide ministry estimate is available by the cutoff, use the first such estimate subsequently published for the 24 October mobilisation. A confirmed cancellation with no associated demonstrations nationwide resolves to zero. Absence of a published estimate alone does not mean zero.

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How many demonstrators will the French Interior Ministry report nationwide for 24 October 2026? | Mantic