Will France declare a state of emergency in response to the unrest before 15 November 2026?

I give a 13% probability of a qualifying declaration by 16th October 2028, mainly because President Macron stated that current conditions did not require one.

France's response to the October 2026 unrest has included local curfews and restrictions on demonstrations. These local measures are distinct from a formal declaration of an etat d'urgence. Source: https://www.tf1info.fr/societe/etat-d-urgence-couvre-feux-interdictions-de-manifester-jusqu-ou-faut-il-aller-alors-qu-une-autre-mobilisation-se-profile-2470930.html .

Resolve Yes if, after this forecast's creation on 21 October 2026 and before 00:00 on 15 November 2026, Europe/Paris time, the French Council of Ministers formally adopts a decree declaring an etat d'urgence under Law No. 55-385 of 3 April 1955 in response to the October 2026 protest-related unrest or its continuation. The decree must cover at least one part of metropolitan France; a nationwide declaration is not required. Its connection to that unrest must be stated in the decree or an official government explanation. The Council of Ministers' formal adoption date counts even if publication or entry into force follows later. A proposal, ministerial demand, ordinary prefectural curfew, demonstration ban, public-health emergency, Vigipirate alert or state of siege alone does not count. Resolve No if no qualifying decree is adopted in the specified window. Use the Journal officiel and official Council of Ministers or government records, with AFP or Reuters confirmation as fallback.