When China further tightens its post–November 10, 2026 rare-earth export-control regime

My median prediction for China to further tighten its rare-earth export controls is 25th March 2027, as an extended US trade truce delays major regulatory escalation until early 2027.

This question resolves to the date when the government of the People’s Republic of China formally issues a new binding measure that would make its rare-earth export-control regime more restrictive than the regime that would otherwise apply immediately after the current suspension expires on November 10, 2026.

A qualifying measure must do at least one of the following:

add new rare-earth materials, permanent magnets, equipment, or technologies to export controls; introduce or broaden a licensing requirement or prohibition; expand controls to additional destinations, end users, end uses, reexports, or foreign-produced items; or otherwise impose a new binding restriction beyond the controls already scheduled to apply after November 10, 2026. Primary resolution sources will be:

China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM): https://english.mofcom.gov.cn/ China Export Control Information Network: https://exportcontrol.mofcom.gov.cn/ Official announcements from the General Administration of Customs of China or other competent PRC government authorities. Fine Print Routine enforcement, individual license denials, customs delays, speeches, warnings, or non-binding guidance do not count.

A qualifying measure counts when if it is formally issued and publicly available, even if its effective date comes after.