What insured losses from the October 2026 unrest in France will France Assureurs report, in euros, as of 30 November 2026?
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Most likely value
791.58M EUR
As of 21 Oct 2026, 10:48 UTC
Forecast distribution
Rationale
Full accessMy most likely value for France Assureurs' reported losses as of 30 November is €790 million, driven by an uplift from 2023 levels because at least 3,000 businesses were damaged.
Forecast breakdown
Full accessForecast record
Forecast context
The 17 October 2026 demonstrations were accompanied by property damage and looting in several French cities. As reported on 20 October, France Assureurs had not yet supplied Euronews with an initial insured-loss estimate. Source: https://fr.euronews.com/2026/10/20/france-les-degats-des-emeutes-doublent-les-entreprises-face-a-la-facture .
Clarifications
Resolve to France Assureurs' latest publicly released estimate available before 1 December 2026, Europe/Paris time, of the nationwide aggregate gross insured losses associated with the October 2026 protest-related unrest, including the 17 October incidents and subsequent October incidents included in its same-event assessment. Use nominal euros. The relevant measure is the estimated cost of insured claims, before reinsurance recoveries, rather than amounts already paid, total economic losses, uninsured property damage, government aid or an individual insurer's own losses. Include business-interruption losses only insofar as they are included in France Assureurs' aggregate insured-claims estimate. Use France Assureurs' release or an explicit attribution of its estimate in AFP, Reuters or another established news outlet. If no qualifying estimate is published by the cutoff, use its first qualifying estimate published subsequently; no publication does not mean zero. Where it publishes a range, use the midpoint; convert millions or billions to euros. Later revisions after the selected publication do not change the result. Do not substitute industry-analyst estimates or estimates for the 2023 riots.
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