The status of development of the E1 settlement in the West Bank on 1 January 2030

I give a 45% probability that no E1 housing construction has started by 1 January 2030, mainly because Eisenkot's opposition and his lead over Netanyahu on Polymarket point toward a policy reversal.

Resolve based on the project's status on 1 January 2030, applying the following rules in order so exactly one option applies.

1. Select 'The project is formally canceled or legally blocked from proceeding' if an official Israeli government decision canceling the E1 residential project, or a binding court order or other competent legal decision prohibiting all residential construction there, is in force on that date. This option takes precedence over physical progress or occupancy. A pending challenge, routine temporary delay, or restriction affecting only part of the project does not qualify.
2. Otherwise, if no E1 housing unit is occupied as a residence on that date, not all housing units authorized under the E1 residential plan have been physically completed, and active building work is underway on at least one residential building, select 'Housing-unit construction is underway but incomplete; no units are occupied.'
3. Otherwise, if no housing-unit construction has begun, select 'No housing-unit construction has started.'
4. Otherwise, select 'Other'. This covers every remaining case: at least one housing unit is occupied; all authorized housing units are complete but none is occupied; or residential construction has begun but is paused or stopped before completion, with no units occupied.

'Housing-unit construction' means physical construction of residential buildings in the E1 plan area, excluding planning approval, tenders, contract awards, preparatory surveys, and infrastructure work alone. 'Underway' refers to an active construction project, not whether workers are present on the exact assessment day; ordinary overnight, weekend, or holiday breaks do not count as a pause. Occupancy means actual residential use, not merely an occupancy permit or a sale. A cancellation or reduction to zero authorized units does not count as completion.

Use official Israeli planning, tender, court, or government records, corroborated by reliable news reporting where necessary.