Brazil's primary fiscal balance as a percentage of GDP in 2029
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Most likely value
0.60%
As of 9 Sept 2026, 15:19 UTC
Forecast distribution
Rationale
Full accessMy most likely prediction for Brazil's primary fiscal balance in 2029 is 0.60% of GDP because ongoing mandatory spending rigidities and recurring execution slippages will temper ambitious official consolidation targets down toward realistic IMF baseline estimates.
Forecast record
ScenariosFull access3
Brazil's primary fiscal balance as a percentage of GDP in 2029
The winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
53% chance of this condition
Default: mean 0.18
50% range: -0.40 to 1.44. 80% range: -1.80 to 2.34.
If yes: mean -0.14
50% range: -0.60 to 1.11. 80% range: -2.13 to 1.80.
If no: mean 0.53
50% range: 0.01 to 1.80. 80% range: -1.38 to 2.60.
The winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election · Flávio Bolsonaro
43% chance of this condition
Default: mean 0.18
50% range: -0.40 to 1.44. 80% range: -1.80 to 2.34.
If yes: mean 0.39
50% range: -0.03 to 1.80. 80% range: -1.61 to 2.60.
If no: mean 0.01
50% range: -0.56 to 1.20. 80% range: -1.97 to 2.00.
The winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election · Augusto Cury
1% chance of this condition
Default: mean 0.18
50% range: -0.40 to 1.44. 80% range: -1.80 to 2.34.
If yes: mean 0.16
50% range: -0.43 to 1.40. 80% range: -1.80 to 2.33.
If no: mean 0.18
50% range: -0.40 to 1.44. 80% range: -1.80 to 2.34.
Brazil's primary fiscal balance as a percentage of GDP in 2029
Brazil's primary fiscal balance as a percentage of GDP in 2029
Forecast context
Clarifications
Use the IMF/Brazil convention for primary fiscal balance as a percentage of GDP for calendar year 2029, or the closest full-year annual estimate published after year-end if the final 202 value is not yet available. Primary balance means the non-interest fiscal balance, excluding interest payments. Express the answer as a percent of GDP; positive values indicate a surplus and negative values indicate a deficit.
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