View live question
Stamped snapshot9 Sep 2026, 17:43

This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.

Brazil's primary fiscal balance as a percentage of GDP in 2029

Clarifications: Use the IMF/Brazil convention for primary fiscal balance as a percentage of GDP for calendar year 2029, or the closest full-year annual estimate published after year-end if the final 202 value is not yet available. Primary balance means the non-interest fiscal balance, excluding interest payments. Express the answer as a percent of GDP; positive values indicate a surplus and negative values indicate a deficit.
Published Sep 9, 2026 3 PM · Reliable information cutoff date: Sep 9, 2026 1 PM
0.6
-10
-5
0
5
Most likely: 0.6
50% range
80% range
SummaryOne page

My most likely prediction for Brazil's primary fiscal balance in 2029 is 0.60% of GDP because ongoing mandatory spending rigidities and recurring execution slippages will temper ambitious official consolidation targets down toward realistic IMF baseline estimates.

For more information, use the forecast chat.

Scenarios
Base mean0.183 scenarios modelled
If YES If NO

  1. The winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 53%

    0.53-0.14

  2. The winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election · Flávio Bolsonaro 43%

    0.010.39

  3. The winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election · Augusto Cury 1%

    Barely changes the forecast

    0.180.16

Want the full analysis?

The complete analysis — full reasoning, news and data sources, and live forecast updates — is available in the Mantic app.

Contact Mantic