The average year-over-year change in the US CPI airline fares index in Q4 2026
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Most likely value
18.84%
As of 18 Aug 2026, 13:32 UTC
Forecast distribution
Rationale
Full accessMy most likely prediction for the average year-over-year change in the US CPI airline fares index in Q4 2026 is 18.84% because a low base effect from late 2025 combined with structural capacity constraints and resilient holiday demand will maintain elevated pricing despite easing fuel costs.
Forecast record
ScenariosFull access3
The average year-over-year change in the US CPI airline fares index in Q4 2026
What will be the average Q4 2026 price of jet fuel? >= 5
10% chance of this condition
Default: mean 16.76
50% range: 14.78 to 24.00. 80% range: 9.00 to 29.50.
If yes: mean 23.72
50% range: 23.01 to 36.00. 80% range: 1.00 to 62.09.
If no: mean 16.00
50% range: 14.70 to 23.00. 80% range: 10.00 to 27.28.
What will be the average Q4 2026 price of jet fuel? >= 4.7
18% chance of this condition
Default: mean 16.76
50% range: 14.78 to 24.00. 80% range: 9.00 to 29.50.
If yes: mean 20.14
50% range: 21.00 to 32.77. 80% range: -1.00 to 56.16.
If no: mean 16.03
50% range: 15.00 to 22.82. 80% range: 10.00 to 26.12.
What will be the average Q4 2026 price of jet fuel? >= 4.3
38% chance of this condition
Default: mean 16.76
50% range: 14.78 to 24.00. 80% range: 9.00 to 29.50.
If yes: mean 18.46
50% range: 18.11 to 29.00. 80% range: 7.92 to 39.00.
If no: mean 15.73
50% range: 14.77 to 22.00. 80% range: 10.40 to 25.00.
The average year-over-year change in the US CPI airline fares index in Q4 2026
The average year-over-year change in the US CPI airline fares index in Q4 2026
Forecast context
Clarifications
Use the BLS CPI airline fares series for the U.S. city average. The forecast resolves to the arithmetic mean of the seasonally adjusted year-over-year percentage changes for the monthly index values in October, November, and December 2026, using the corresponding monthly index values from October, November, and December 2025 as the base. If BLS revises the underlying index values after initial publication, use the first published values available by the end of January 2027.
Want the full analysis?
The complete analysis, including full reasoning, news and data sources, and live forecast updates, is available in the Mantic app.