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Stamped snapshot24 Aug 2026, 12:20

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The average year-over-year change in the US CPI airline fares index in Q4 2026

Clarifications: Use the BLS CPI airline fares series for the U.S. city average. The forecast resolves to the arithmetic mean of the seasonally adjusted year-over-year percentage changes for the monthly index values in October, November, and December 2026, using the corresponding monthly index values from October, November, and December 2025 as the base. If BLS revises the underlying index values after initial publication, use the first published values available by the end of January 2027.
Published Aug 18, 2026 1 PM · Reliable information cutoff date: Aug 18, 2026 11 AM
18.84
-20
0
20
40
60
Most likely: 18.84
50% range
80% range
SummaryOne page

My most likely prediction for the average year-over-year change in the US CPI airline fares index in Q4 2026 is 18.84% because a low base effect from late 2025 combined with structural capacity constraints and resilient holiday demand will maintain elevated pricing despite easing fuel costs.

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Scenarios
Base mean16.763 scenarios modelled
If YES If NO

  1. What will be the average Q4 2026 price of jet fuel? >= 5 10%

    16.0023.72

  2. What will be the average Q4 2026 price of jet fuel? >= 4.7 18%

    16.0320.14

  3. What will be the average Q4 2026 price of jet fuel? >= 4.3 38%

    15.7318.46

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What will be the average year-over-year change in the US CPI airline fares index in Q4 2026? | Mantic