The winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
53.2%
As of 9 Sept 2026, 15:10 UTC
Outcome probabilities
Rationale
Full accessI predict Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has a 53% probability of winning the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, as his slight first-round polling lead and incumbency advantage provide a razor-thin edge over Flávio Bolsonaro in an otherwise dead-heat second-round runoff.
Forecast record
Forecast context
Clarifications
Resolves to the candidate who is officially certified by the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) as the winner of Brazil's 2026 presidential election. If a runoff is held, the certified winner after the runoff counts. If no candidate is certified because the election is annulled or otherwise not concluded with a certified winner, or if the certified winner is not one of the named candidates, the answer is 'Another outcome'.
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