How many of Paris, Lyon, Bordeaux, Lille and Nice will have unrest-related curfews in force during the night of 31 October to 1 November 2026?
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Most likely value
0 cities
As of 21 Oct 2026, 10:53 UTC
Forecast distribution
Rationale
Full accessMy most likely value for the number of cities with qualifying curfews is zero, because existing curfew orders reported by Le Monde, Reuters, and the Gironde prefecture expire before Halloween.
Forecast breakdown
Full accessForecast record
Forecast context
Local curfews were introduced in several French cities after the 17 October 2026 unrest. Source: https://www.leparisien.fr/societe/violences-du-17-octobre-apres-paris-lille-nice-de-nouveaux-couvre-feux-seront-decides-ce-mardi-soir-annonce-sebastien-lecornu-20-10-2026-EQG2DA5GQNE6HGMVSE3ATI7UPI.php .
Clarifications
Resolve to an integer from 0 to 5, counting each of the communes Paris, Lyon, Bordeaux, Lille and Nice once if an enforceable official curfew connected to the October 2026 protest-related unrest applies to any part of that commune at any time from 18:00 on 31 October through 08:00 on 1 November 2026, Europe/Paris time. A restriction requiring people to remain off public streets or in their homes during specified hours counts, including a curfew applying only to minors or only to a neighbourhood. A wider departmental or national order counts for each listed commune it covers. Orders applying only to neighbouring communes outside the listed municipal boundary do not count. Exclude recommendations, bans on demonstrations or gatherings, business-closing orders and transport suspensions on their own. An announced curfew must actually be legally in force within the observation window; an order revoked or suspended before it starts does not count. Use published prefectural, municipal or government orders, with AFP or Reuters reporting as fallback. If none of the five communes has a qualifying curfew, resolve to 0.
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