The percentage of valid votes Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Most likely value
44.34%
As of 29 Sept 2026, 21:40 UTC
Forecast distribution
Rationale
Full accessMy most likely prediction for Lula's valid-vote share is 44.3% because recent polls cluster tightly between 43% and 46%, and I apply a modest downward adjustment to account for historical PT-polling overstatement, differential turnout, and third-party vote transfers.
Forecast record
ScenariosFull access7
The percentage of valid votes Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Will Lula receive between 41.5% and 42.5% of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
10% chance of this condition
Yes: Default 42%; If yes 20%; If no 44%
No: Default 58%; If yes 80%; If no 56%
Will Lula receive between 42.5% and 43.5% of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
14% chance of this condition
Yes: Default 42%; If yes 23%; If no 45%
No: Default 58%; If yes 77%; If no 55%
Will Lula receive between 43.5% and 44.5% of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
19% chance of this condition
Yes: Default 42%; If yes 36%; If no 43%
No: Default 58%; If yes 64%; If no 57%
Will Lula receive between 44.5% and 45.5% of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
17% chance of this condition
Yes: Default 42%; If yes 42%; If no 42%
No: Default 58%; If yes 58%; If no 58%
Will Lula receive between 45.5% and 46.5% of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
15% chance of this condition
Yes: Default 42%; If yes 51%; If no 40%
No: Default 58%; If yes 49%; If no 60%
Will Lula receive between 46.5% and 47.5% of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
9% chance of this condition
Yes: Default 42%; If yes 61%; If no 40%
No: Default 58%; If yes 39%; If no 60%
Will Lula receive between 47.5% and 48.5% of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
7% chance of this condition
Yes: Default 42%; If yes 67%; If no 40%
No: Default 58%; If yes 33%; If no 60%
The percentage of valid votes Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Forecast conditional on: Will Lula receive between 41.5% and 42.5% of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Question context
The 2026 Brazilian presidential election is shaping up to be highly polarized, pitting incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party (PT) against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL). In May 2026, polls showed a highly competitive race that has been heavily influenced by the Banco Master financial scandal. The scandal, which involves arrested former banker Daniel Vorcaro, has implicated figures across the political spectrum. An AtlasIntel poll from mid-May 2026 showed Lula leading the first round with 47% of the intended vote, up from previous months following a meeting with the US President and improving economic perceptions. Other polls by RealTime Big Data and Meio/Ideia from early May showed Lula capturing between 38% and 40% of the first-round vote. Under Brazil's electoral system, a candidate must secure more than 50% of the valid votes (excluding blank and null votes) to win outright in the first round and avoid a runoff.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve based on the official percentage of valid votes (votos válidos) received by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, as reported by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The value should be expressed as a percentage (e.g., 48.5 for 48.5% of valid votes).
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